Australian Economy Continues To Slow, Slashing Chance Of February Rate Rise

Australia's economy experienced a modest growth of 0.2% in the September quarter, reflecting a pause in household spending influenced by factors such as inflation, increased mortgage repayments, and higher income tax. Despite the annual growth rate holding at 2.1%, concerns arose as GDP per capita fell by 0.3%, indicating a persistent per capita recession since the previous year.

The third-quarter GDP figures fell short of economists' expectations, with a consensus forecast of a 0.4% increase. Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged the challenges faced by households due to higher interest rates and global uncertainties but highlighted broader progress in the economy. The removal of the Low and Middle Income Tax Offset in the 2022-23 financial year contributed to a higher income tax burden on households, impacting the household saving ratio. The rise in interest rates and inflation further diminished the proportion of income directed towards savings.

GDP per hour worked, a measure of labour productivity, experienced a 2.1% decline in the year to September, albeit less severe than the 3.6% decline recorded in the previous financial year. Following the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to maintain rates at 4.35%, the Australian dollar initially declined, reflecting market expectations of reduced chances of future rate hikes.

Investors adjusted their outlook off the back of this news, slashing the probability of another rate hike from 44% to 10%. The GDP figures reinforced this dovish outlook, as the economy's growth remained modest at 0.2% in the September quarter, coupled with a significant decline in household savings.

While acknowledging the economic challenges, it's important to note that a slower economy implies that interest rates should remain stable or even decrease. Market analysts have already highlighted a notable shift in RBA pricing for 2024, with the market predicting no more RBA rate hikes. There's a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by June next year, signalling a shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy.

In summary, Australia's economic performance in the September quarter faced challenges, leading to a cautious outlook. The factors influencing household spending and the reduced likelihood of rate hikes suggest a balanced approach to monetary policy, taking into account the need for stability in the face of economic headwinds.