Chris Carlin, Senior Financial Adviser and Head of Education, raises an alarming concern amidst the ever-rising property values in Australia, stating, "It is clear that high immigration, low supply of new dwellings and the current taxation and social security structures in relation to property are continuing to push everyday nurses and teachers out of the property market."

Carlin's candid assessment comes in the backdrop of the latest findings from CoreLogic's Home Value Index (HVI), revealing a national rise of 0.9% in property values for October. This acceleration, following a 0.7% increase in September (revised down from 0.8%), suggests a potential new record high for the national HVI by mid-November. The index has already grown by 7.6% since its January trough, now standing just half a percent below the historic high recorded in April last year.

While housing values continue to climb in most capital cities, there is a clear slowdown in the quarterly pace of growth. Capital city home values, which saw a robust 3.7% rise in the three months ending June 2023, have slowed to a 2.6% growth over the three months to October.  

Nevertheless, October witnessed dwelling values rise across most capital cities, with Perth (1.6%), Brisbane (1.4%), and Adelaide (1.3%) leading the charge. Sydney (10.9%), Perth (10.8%), and Brisbane (10.2%) have experienced substantial growth, with Brisbane's housing values successfully erasing a previous -8.9% decline.

Yet, not all cities have reached their peak, with Sydney values remaining -2.2% below their January 2022 high, and Melbourne values still -3.7% below their March 2022 peak. Hobart finds itself in the most challenging position, with values still -11.6% below peak levels.

In the regional markets, a similar trend of lower growth is observed compared to the capital cities, with a combined regional index up 0.7% in October versus a 0.9% rise in the combined capitals. This dynamic was evident across every state, and every rest-of-state region saw an increase in home values for the month, except Regional Tasmania, where values remained flat.  

Nevertheless, within the regional landscape, challenges persist. Of the 307 SA3 regions analysed nationally, 41 have seen a drop in value over the past three months, with most of these regions located in Regional Victoria and Regional NSW.

Regional Victoria stands out as the softest among the rest-of-state regions, with housing values holding virtually flat (-0.2%) over the rolling quarter. These soft conditions coincide with rising stock levels and reduced demand.  

The overarching concern brought to the forefront by Chris Carlin serves as a reminder that the challenges faced by everyday workers in the property market are multi-faceted. Addressing these issues requires collaborative efforts and innovative solutions that can create a more inclusive and sustainable path toward homeownership for all Australians.

Carlin goes on to deliver a sobering prediction: "If current property trends continue, our kids will be paying in excess of $3,000,000 for their first home. I doubt they will be able to do this by themselves and will have to rely on intergenerational wealth."