Why Interest Rates May Go Up Again

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has recently unveiled its most recent data on inflation, revealing a noteworthy upturn in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Over the third quarter of the year, the CPI witnessed a 1.2 percent increase, translating to a 5.4 percent annual increment. This surge in quarterly headline inflation marks a significant acceleration from the 0.8 percent recorded in the preceding quarter, even though the annual rate dipped slightly from 6.0 percent in the twelve months leading up to June.

Market observers and three of the prominent "big four" banks had been anticipating a quarterly increase in headline inflation of 1.1 percent and an annual growth of 5.3 percent. Commenting on this, Michelle Marquardt, the Head of Prices Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, stated, "CPI rose 1.2 percent in the September quarter, surpassing the 0.8 percent rise in the June 2023 quarter. Nevertheless, this quarter's increase remained comparatively lower than the rates observed throughout the entirety of 2022." Notably, while prices continued to rise for most goods and services, some categories, such as child care, vegetables, and domestic holiday travel and accommodation, saw offsetting declines during this quarter.

The most substantial contributors to this upturn were automotive fuel (increasing by 7.2 percent), rents (rising by 2.2 percent), new dwellings purchased by owner occupiers (up by 1.3 percent), and electricity costs (escalating by 4.2 percent). Trimmed mean inflation also exhibited an increase of 1.2 percent during the quarter and 5.2 percent over the year. The market had been projecting a more modest rise in the underlying inflation measure, with expectations of a 1.0 percent increase quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and a 5.0 percent uptick year-on-year (YoY).

Tyson Roberts, the Managing Director and Senior Financial Adviser at Vista Financial Group, drew attention to the quarterly results as a source of concern, noting that "A quarterly inflation rate of 1.2 percent annualises to 4.8 percent, well above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2-3 percent per annum. Consequently, it appears likely that interest rates will need to remain elevated and may even surpass market expectations."

In its August statement on monetary policy, the RBA had forecasted that annual headline inflation would decline to 4.1 percent, with trimmed mean inflation falling to 3.9 percent by the end of the year. Commenting on this, economists at ANZ expressed the view that "The Reserve Bank of Australia can likely tolerate a slightly higher CPI print than their August projection, as long as the path toward the target remains on track." Updated forecasts from the RBA will be disclosed in their next statement on monetary policy on November 10, subsequent to their board meeting scheduled for November 7.

Looking ahead, Tyson Roberts has forecasted that the likelihood of an interest rate increase in November has risen in recent weeks. "A fortnight ago, we would have estimated a 20 percent chance of a rate hike in November; now, we believe the probability is closer to 50 percent." This shifting outlook on interest rates suggests that financial markets and policymakers will be carefully monitoring the economic landscape in the coming weeks and months.

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